If voter turnout in both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire Democratic primary are any indication of voter interest in the 2004 presidential election, the anemic turnouts of 2000 and 2002 may be eclipsed by the strongest voter turnout in decades.

Despite subfreezing temperature in Iowa on January 19, 2004, 120,000 Democrats showed up to publicly declare their support for some candidate at almost 2,000 local precinct caucuses around the state that night. This was twice the number of Democrats who turned out in 2000.

Eight days later, in New Hampshire, some 200,000 voters participated in the primary surpassing the record turnout of 170,000 voters who put Paul Tsongas ahead of Bill Clinton in 1992.

Tony Welch, of the Democratic National Committee, was elated over what he referred to as "voter enthusiasm".

Estimating that 50 percent of the participants in the Iowa caucuses were young, new voters, when asked why he thought voter turnout was so strong, Mr. Welch said,"Not only are voters turning out because of the race for the various Democratic nominees, but there is a strong and growing interest on the part of Democrats and independent voters in replacing George W. Bush."

Thomas Patterson, a Harvard University professor, would caution Mr. Welch with the results of a study concluded recently that showed that the youngest, newly registered voters are fairly evenly split between the Democratic and Republican parties, with a slight advantage going to the GOP. The study was conducted by Harvard University's Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy, which, during the 2000 presidential election campaign carried out 3the most comprehensive study ever2 of citizen involvement in an election campaign. The results are published in a book by Mr. Patterson titled The Vanishing Voter: Civic Involvement in an Age of Uncertainty (Knopf, 2002).

"What's interesting about this election year is the fact that President Bush has energized his base, while at the same time deeply angering people who are not part of that base," Mr. Patterson commented.

"In many presidential elections, either one side or the other is fired up. What's interesting about this election is that two sides have a keen interest in the outcome."

Mr. Patterson said "Circumstances do matter. This election year the bad economy and the war in Iraq have stimulated a high level of interest. That more younger voters are participating is a reflection, I think of three things. One, the war. Wars tend to activate young people in opposition to them. The second factor is the Dean campaign, which drew participation of young people and engaged them. The third factor is that many colleges are making voter registration a higher priority.

"At Harvard, for example, students were required to pass the voter registration table before they could proceed to register for their classes," Mr. Patterson added,

Noting the dramatic 100 percent increase in voter participation in Iowa's Democratic caucuses, Mr. Patterson said, "Iowa is an interesting case. It certainly helps voter turnout when you have 8 candidates with all their people on the ground organizing like crazy!"

"It's a long way to November," said Mr. Patterson. "We don't know what will happen if, for example, the Dean activists drop out of the process if their candidate drops out of the race. Or, if the polls show George W. Bush leading by 18 or 20 points, that could take the energy right out of this election, leading to poor voter turnout."

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